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Musta Joutsen: Erittäin epätodennäköisen vaikutus

Musta Joutsen Eritt in ep todenn k isen vaikutus Musta Joutsen on eritt in ep todenn k inen tapahtuma jolla on kolme luonteenomaista piirrett se ei ole ennustettava sill on valtava vaikutus ja osaamme kehitell selityksen jonka ansiosta se vaikutt

  • Title: Musta Joutsen: Erittäin epätodennäköisen vaikutus
  • Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kimmo Pietiläinen
  • ISBN: 9789525697377
  • Page: 181
  • Format: Paperback
  • Musta Joutsen on eritt in ep todenn k inen tapahtuma, jolla on kolme luonteenomaista piirrett se ei ole ennustettava, sill on valtava vaikutus ja osaamme kehitell selityksen, jonka ansiosta se vaikuttaa v hemm n satunnaiselta ja ennustettavammalta kuin olikaan Googlen h mm stytt v menestys oli Musta Joutsen, samoin syyskuun 11 p iv n terrori isku Nassim Talebille MMusta Joutsen on eritt in ep todenn k inen tapahtuma, jolla on kolme luonteenomaista piirrett se ei ole ennustettava, sill on valtava vaikutus ja osaamme kehitell selityksen, jonka ansiosta se vaikuttaa v hemm n satunnaiselta ja ennustettavammalta kuin olikaan Googlen h mm stytt v menestys oli Musta Joutsen, samoin syyskuun 11 p iv n terrori isku Nassim Talebille Mustat Joutsenet ovat miltei kaikkien maailman ilmi iden tausta alkaen uskontojen noususta ja ulottuen henkil kohtaiseen el m mme.Miksemme n e Musta Joutsen ilmi it ennen kuin ne tapahtuvat Talebin mukaan osa vastauksesta on, ett meid t ihmiset on johdotettu oppimaan yksityiskohtia, kun meid n pit isi keskitty yleiseen Keskitymme asioihin, jotka jo tied mme, ja yh uudelleen j t mme tuntemattoman huomiotta Sen seurauksena emme osaa arvioida tilaisuuksia, olemme liian alttiita yksinkertaistamiselle, narraatiolle ja luokittelulle emmek riitt v n avoimia palkitsemaan niit , jotka kuvittelevat mahdottoman.Matemaatikko ja optiomeklari Taleb on pitk n tutkinut, miksi h m mme itsemme ajattelemaan, ett tied mme enemm n kuin oikeastaan tied mmek n Rajoitamme ajattelumme ep olennaiseen ja turhaan, kun suuret asiat toistuvasti yll tt v t meid t ja muokkaavat maailmaa.T ss merkitt v ss teoksessa Taleb selitt kaiken siit , mit emme tied H nell on yll tt v n yksinkertaisia keinoja k sitell Mustia Joutsenia ja hy ty niist.

    • Musta Joutsen: Erittäin epätodennäköisen vaikutus - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kimmo Pietiläinen
      181 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kimmo Pietiläinen
    • thumbnail Title: Musta Joutsen: Erittäin epätodennäköisen vaikutus - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kimmo Pietiläinen
      Posted by:Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kimmo Pietiläinen
      Published :2019-06-20T00:09:51+00:00

    About "Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kimmo Pietiläinen"

    1. Nassim Nicholas Taleb Kimmo Pietiläinen

      Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge He spent two decades as a trader before becoming a philosophical essayist and academic researcher in probability theory Although he now spends most of his time either working in intense seclusion in his study, or as a fl neur meditating in caf s across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University s Polytechnic Institute His main subject matter is decision making under opacity , that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don t understand.His works are grouped under the general title Incerto latin for uncertainty , composed of a trilogy accessible in any order Antifragile, The Black Swan, and Fooled by Randomness plus two addenda a book of philosophical aphorisms The Bed of Procrustes and a freely available Technical Companion Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport See for details.

    651 Comments

    1. This is a great book. And, to take a page from Taleb, anyone who doesn't think so is wrong.No, no, there are a number of problems with the book. A bit bloated, a bit repetitive. And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while. To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be "hardened by the Gulag" means to become "harder" or "stronger" rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties, not necessarily strong [...]


    2. I can summarize this book in two words: Shit happens.Actually, I should be more fair since the author spent 300 pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions. The real summary of this book should be: Shit happens more often than you think.The author, Taleb, rails against economics, most philosophers, and the way we incorporate news to allow us to make sense of events and everyday happenings. He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn, while destroying the modern beliefs in stat [...]


    3. This is a book that raises a number of very important questions, but chief among them is definitely the question of how the interplay between a good idea and an insufferable author combine to effect the reading experience? This author is an a-hole. Full stop. He's dismissive, chronically insecure, unstructured and hostile towards his detractors. He engages in what may be the lowest form of rhetoric by pre-emptively attacking any critics (even before they've had the chance to come forward) as too [...]


    4. The first time through, I listened to this book with my husband, usually while I was cooking. Although I tried to stop and mark important passages, I ended up thinking the book was not very systematic. The second time through, chapter by chapter, the method in his madness is more apparent. I continued to think Taleb is more a popularizer than an innovator. But even if so, that's not so shabby. He's trying to revolutionize the way we think, and the more we rehearse that, the better. Nassim Nichol [...]


    5. First, a disclaimer. I am, professionally, a statistician. I do not have a Ph.D. in my field because I feel that statisticians with Ph.D.'s are devoid of practicality and usefulness to the real world. I work at a factory where I assist engineers in better understanding how processes work and making things better. I generally feel that I make a worthwhile contribution to the world. I bought and read this book because it was critical of statisticians. I do not believe in surrounding myself with 'y [...]


    6. Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book. As I read it I was constantly alternating between "Wow, that's a really great insight, a great way of presenting it" and "Gee, who doesn't realize that?", or even "That just seems flat-out wrong".It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts ("quants") working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early 2008; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that foll [...]


    7. This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it. Taleb's jeremiad is directed against - well - everyone who is not as enlightened as he is. I trudged through this book because - well - everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it. There, I did it. Now I can look down on all those people out there who aren't enlightened like Taleb. And now, me.Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his v [...]


    8. This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written(A) The ideasThere is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar. His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air into the subject and gloss it with some 21st century context.It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impa [...]



    9. If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book. It will reaffirm what you already know. To the rest of you: this book will reaffirm what you thought you knew when you were 5 or 6with an updated vocabulary. I put this book down after the first chapter, but thought I would give it another chance, that I was being unfair. When I read the second chapter (which is a metaphor for what [...]


    10. This felt like it was trying to be the next The Tipping Point or Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything and just failed spectacularly, on all counts. Most importantly, perhaps, was that it was dull and a chore to read. In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped (read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother), like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one le [...]


    11. الفكرة المحورية لهذا الكتاب هي انك عاجز عن التكهن، وأيا تكن النظريات الاحصائية وحساب الاحتمالات الذي تعتمده، فما لم يكن يضع العشوائية والتشككية في الحسبان فهو لا يعول عليه. نحن نعيش بمفاهيم (وبرمجة) تحاول اقناعنا بقدرتنا على التعامل مع عالم بقوانين ثابتة، عندما لا تكون هذه [...]


    12. This book profoundly nasty and intellectually demented. Taleb a classic science denier; oscillating between anti-science and pseudo-intellectual arguments. When some scientist says something he likes, he misrepresents it to fit his narrative. When the scientific consensus is against him, he cries grand conspiracy theory or slanders the methods of science. His argumentation in this book is like a case study in logical fallacies and crank red flags.Special pleading.Ignoring disconfirming evidence [...]


    13. A lot of blogs said a lot of nice things about this book, and from this I conclude that most of those bloggers either A) strictly read the executive summary or B) only read other bloggers. This is a pretty terrible book, and while it has one or two good ideas, they are better and more rigorously expressed in books like "Sway" or "The Drunkard's Walk" than they are in this shameless exercise in self promotion.The fact that the author displays a limited understanding of the topic, and tends to lum [...]


    14. كل حدث في حياتنا له سبب ما نحاول دائما ان نتكهن بالمستقبل بحكم طبيعتنا البشرية لا نريد ان نفاجأ بحدث يقلب حياتنا رأسا على عقب لكن هل نفلح في ذلك في كتابه البجعة السوداء حاول نسيم طالب في حوالي 500 صفحه ايضاح ماهيه هذا الحدث وكيف ان تكهناتنا لن تمنع وقوعه ذلك اننا لا نلعب وفق قو [...]


    15. У "Чорному лебеді" я знайшла для себе багато цікавих думок та ідей для роздумів. Особливо цікавими були розтлумачення, як наша свідомість нас обманює, чому нам важко передбачати неймовірне і давати собі об'єктивний звіт в цьому. Точні прогнози на майбутнє не мають особливої [...]


    16. Black Swan, huge-impact improbable events (the success of google, attack of 9/11, invention of internet), shows that social sciences fail to predict various events (behaviors inculuded) by,and so far by merely , usingGaussian "bell curve" approach. The use of mathematics in social sciences overestimates what we know (observed past events)and underestimates what we don't (probable future events): too little science papers succeeded to make (near) accurate predictions; and successful inventions ar [...]


    17. This book is a weird mix of novel ideas, bragging, and pseudo-science.Taleb makes a strong case for his theory of black swans. It's an interesting and valuable theory but it's also one that could be communicated in a short conversation and does not need a whole book to contain it. Taleb fills the rest of the pages by bragging about his own success and ridiculing established philosophers, economists, and anyone else he can think of. I'm not in any position to judge his opinions of these people, b [...]


    18. Sometimes you can't predict when things happen. Sometimes past evidence does not necessarily predict future trends. I paraphrase David Mamet: Let me buy Nassim Taleb a pack of gum, he'll show you how to chew it.


    19. Okay, let's see if I got it straightAn anti-academic academic weaves a non-narrative narrative about predicting the unpredictable into the theory that rigid theories are bad.Oh, and count on things you can't conceive of happening happening.Something like that.Taleb's observations on the expectations and biases we hold, especially when estimating risk or uncertainty, are pretty dead on. His key practical point is about the need for a NON-parametric look at any situation in which low-probability e [...]


    20. I only read the first 13 pages of this book, plus the prologue, but that was enough. In the first few pages he name-drops people like Umberto Eco and Nabokov, tells us about people who were rather unknown five years ago (but forgets to tell us that they are still rather unknown now), and compares himself to people in history who are/were actually influential. For a man who claims he is not writing an autobiography, he really works hard to impress the reader. He adds little bits of information in [...]


    21. پرفسور نسیم طالب علاوه بر فعالیت های پژوهشی و علمی در زمینه کسب و کار هم فعال بوده اما او را بیشتر به خاطر کارهایش در حوزه ی احتمالات و عدم قطعیت میشناسند. مفهوم قوی سیاه این است که مردم را مجبور میسازد درباره ی ناشناخته ها و قدرت آنها تامل کنند. تامل به معنای هالو نبودن نه شک گر [...]


    22. کتاب فوق‌ العاده بود. بررسی نسبتا مفصلی رو در وبلاگم درموردش نوشتم:sadraa/%d9%86%d8%b3%db%8c%همین قدر بگم که برای بار دوم خواهم خوندش. فقط در مورد ترجمه بگم که با توجه به این که متن انگلیسی ثقیله کار قابل قبولی انجام شده اما متاسفانه بعضی جاها مترجم برای واژه هایی که معادلهای خوب و معروف د [...]


    23. nyari buku hegel malah dapat buku ini yang terjemahannya. ada beberapa kalimatnya yang menggelitik maka tertarik deh.:D*sampe bab 1*Ide buku ini menarik.Black Swan adalah sebuah metafora yang pertama saya pahami dari kajian filsafat ilmu dulu sewaktu kuliah. Karl Raimund Poper menggunakan metafora itu untuk menjelaskan konsepsinya tentang falsifikasi. Di dunia ini, manusia cenderung percaya untuk mengatakan angsa putih adalah kebenaran. Keguncangan pada kebenaran itu akan terjadi jika ada angsa [...]


    24. فكرة الكتاب تتمحور حول أن اعتقادنا بأن باستطاعتنا بشكل موثوق التكهن بالأحداث مبالغ فيه بشدة، وأن هذه المبالغة مدعومة من علماء رياضيات واحصاء ومن يساندهم مما يجعل الركون الى هذه الثقة أشد خطرا. ونحن _عامة الناس _ نعتقد ان وضع معظم البيانات التي تحصلنا عليها تاريخيا ورسمها في [...]


    25. هذا الكتاب من نوعية الكتب التي تقرأ مطلعها ثم تتوقف مليا، للتفكير ربما أو للملل، ثم تعود من البداية لتعاود قراءة ماسبق لظنك أنه فاتك فهما ماثم تسترسل في القراءة على مضض حينا وبشوق عارم أحايين أُخر تتعثر قليلا لكنك تكمل على أية حال، حتى تأتي على الكتاب كله، ثم تحدثك نفسك بأنه [...]


    26. Nassim Taleb's earlier book "Fooled by Randomness" was enormously successful - deservedly so, in my opinion. Unfortunately, this second book is a complete disappointment. Despite its length, it adds very little of interest to the material in the first book. Much of it is a rambling and indulgent rehash of ideas already developed adequately in the first book. If you are looking for fresh insight, spare your money.Taleb is a very smart guy. In the first book, he wrote fluidly, clearly, without con [...]


    27. Wall-banger at page 64. This might not be the final rating. I entertain the possibility of picking this up again, but at the moment I cannot bear the thought. The author is an annoying schmuck and that overshadows the concepts, which are quite interesting. You want to learn something useful within the same genre, pick up "Thinking, fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman instead.


    28. Maybe some of the ideas were elaborated again and again but, nonetheless, it was a great book with eye-opening ideas (as it is the case with Nassim's books).


    29. This book is like a nice cup of dark roasted coffee. A bit bitter for those who are unfamiliar with the Black Swan brand of uncertainty, yet disconcertingly alerting for those who have encountered this rare blend. The Black Swan glides through deep philosophical discussions and clever humor as effortlessly as its namesake. I was deeply enthralled by Nassim Nicholas Taleb's depth of erudition and wisdom concerning the philosophy of uncertainty. The second edition of which I was privileged to read [...]


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